Has the demand for container shipping peaked?

Global supply-demand mismatch is the root cause of abnormal demand
Behind the container demand is a mismatch of global supply and demand, including intra-regional supply and demand mismatch and inter-regional mismatch, which is manifested by the surge of U.S. import demand and the substitution latte比例 of Asian exports to other regions.
When will U.S. import demand top out?
U.S. policy is gradually returning to normality from overshooting, the job market is repairing, overlaid with inflationary effects, and consumption momentum is falling back. However, the savings buffer and the improvement in labor compensation strengthen consumption resilience, and the marginal fall in consumption will not be too fast. In addition, subject to seasonal disturbances, the traditional peak season in July-August is expected to 日本集運香港最平extend into June-October, and the year-end peak season in December-January is also expected to be front-loaded, with the fourth quarter off-season not off. Containerized transport demand topped, but the inflection point still needs to wait, focusing on the timing around the Spring Festival next year. And the rhythm of the pullback in demand for consolidation is affected by the epidemic and the speed of employment recovery.
Can the alternative demand for shipping be sustained?
Asia/China production recovered faster than other regions, with the first overseas outbreak in 2020 and triggered substitution. After the epidemic improves, orders begin to gradually return, but the return takes time. There are differences in the ease of substitution between industries, 日本集運香港 with labor-intensive industries being the easiest to replace and the fastest to return orders due to a variety of factors, including the nature of the industry. With the new outbreak, orders from some industries are again flowing to China, but the degree of substitution is weaker compared to the first outbreak. Now that the inflection point of the epidemic has been confirmed, orders will gradually flow back.
Investment advice.
U.S. import demand dominates the changing trend of shipping demand. The current demand contradiction is expected to trend improvement, but the arrival of the trend inflection point under the epidemic and seasonal market disturbance still needs to wait.

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